tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083 1h 40m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 7h 10m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:25 → STL 07:30WN 3435 1h 45m St Louis STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327 7h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 7h 21m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → LAS 11:35WN 974 8h 25m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 40m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 43m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 39m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 7h 20m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:45 → PHL 21:24AA 5590 · flown by PSA 49m Philadelphia PHL 22:13 → LAS 00:32 +1AA 3250 7h 47m 70% 53%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → LAS 23:25WN 3936 6h 30m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy 52m Chicago ORD 20:59 → LAS 22:54AA 1465 7h 30m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON