Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1943 RDU 07:00 → LAX 09:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 508 RDU 18:40 → LAX 20:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1943 American Flight history →	RDU 07:00	LAX 09:32	15%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1569 American Flight history →	RDU 17:24	LAX 19:45	24%	7%	0.7%	69%
DL 508 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:40	LAX 20:46	25%	6%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 38m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 14m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	7h 05m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON