Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4494 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4494 RDU 08:44 → LGA 10:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4560 RDU 20:20 → LGA 22:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4494 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 08:44	LGA 10:30	12%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 1083 American Flight history →	RDU 06:50	LGA 08:26	14%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 4496 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:31	LGA 14:29	17%	5%	1.0%	75%
AA 4497 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:54	LGA 17:44	29%	10%	1.3%	61%
AA 4560 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 20:20	LGA 22:14	33%	12%	1.5%	61%
DL 4689 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:43	17%	9%	4.2%	83%
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:30	LGA 10:12	32%	22%	2.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:59	LGA 21:58	35%	20%	7.2%	65%
DL 5184 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:01	LGA 16:44	40%	22%	7.9%	60%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON