Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 21:15, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:00	MCI 09:42	15%	7%	2.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → MCI 09:55WN 4289	4h 20m	95%	90%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083	1h 50m Denver	DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15WN 1584	7h 00m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05WN 4215	4h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	5h 28m	98%	88%
American Details →	RDU 05:16 → DFW 07:27AA 2605	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy	7h 28m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 10:20 → MCI 11:46DL 1608	6h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908	5h 56m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 17:22 → PHL 19:01AA 2360	1h 04m Philadelphia	PHL 20:05 → MCI 22:24AA 2901	6h 02m	70%	56%
Southwest Details →	RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40WN 3428	55m Denver	DEN 19:35 → MCI 22:20WN 1589	6h 25m	59%	39%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m New York	LGA 19:55 → MCI 22:21DL 563	6h 16m	44%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON