Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3430 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3430 RDU 07:15 → MCO 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1785 RDU 19:32 → MCO 21:33 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3430 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 07:15	MCO 08:55	5%	3%	11.5%	95%
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	6%	3%	12.2%	91%
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:26	MCO 13:15	15%	5%	15.1%	84%
DL 1319 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:03	MCO 19:05	26%	10%	16.2%	68%
WN 3431 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 18:10	MCO 20:00	27%	14%	15.7%	56%
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:31	MCO 16:32	27%	14%	17.6%	69%
F9 1785 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 19:32	MCO 21:33	36%	17%	17.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON