Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1088 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 1088 RDU 05:00 → MIA 07:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2335 RDU 18:09 → MIA 20:25 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1088 American Flight history →	RDU 05:00	MIA 07:10	8%	3%	1.7%	91%
DL 890 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:15	MIA 10:26	15%	5%	1.6%	82%
AA 3010 American Flight history →	RDU 08:30	MIA 10:44	18%	4%	1.7%	86%
AA 3501 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDU 07:00	MIA 09:10	18%	4%	1.8%	75%
AA 2405 American Flight history →	RDU 11:10	MIA 13:19	21%	6%	2.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 2375 American Flight history →	RDU 19:46	MIA 22:00	36%	11%	1.7%	42%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	RDU 17:30	MIA 19:49	37%	13%	2.2%	55%
F9 2335 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 18:09	MIA 20:25	45%	18%	3.3%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON