Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4633 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4633 RDU 09:03 → ORD 10:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3696 RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4633 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:03	ORD 10:35	9%	4%	1.2%	86%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	10%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 07:08	ORD 08:30	12%	5%	1.6%	85%
UA 1297 United Flight history →	RDU 08:05	ORD 09:31	14%	5%	0.9%	72%
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	15%	7%	1.0%	86%
AA 4756 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 13:19	ORD 14:55	16%	5%	1.2%	81%
AA 4563 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 16:14	ORD 17:59	20%	7%	1.2%	60%
AA 4492 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 19:14	ORD 21:11	21%	8%	1.3%	58%
UA 5465 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 13:15	ORD 14:45	22%	7%	1.1%	83%
UA 630 United Flight history →	RDU 17:12	ORD 18:42	27%	9%	0.6%	45%
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDU 18:24	ORD 20:07	34%	8%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON