Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1248 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1248 RDU 06:00 → PHL 07:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2072 RDU 19:46 → PHL 21:16 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1248 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	PHL 07:38	9%	4%	1.1%	92%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	RDU 10:36	PHL 12:10	14%	5%	0.7%	93%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	RDU 08:01	PHL 09:34	17%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 2403 American Flight history →	RDU 13:05	PHL 14:34	27%	7%	0.7%	73%
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 19:45	PHL 21:24	28%	13%	1.8%	57%
AA 5644 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:15	PHL 16:50	30%	12%	1.3%	63%
AA 2360 American Flight history →	RDU 17:22	PHL 19:01	32%	10%	0.8%	47%
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:39	PHL 16:13	32%	15%	1.1%	75%
F9 2072 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 19:46	PHL 21:16	37%	16%	1.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON