Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2601 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2601 RDU 06:36 → PHX 08:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3033 RDU 17:47 → PHX 19:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2601 American Flight history →	RDU 06:36	PHX 08:09	13%	4%	1.0%	90%
WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:15	PHX 14:45	24%	5%	0.6%	58%
AA 3033 American Flight history →	RDU 17:47	PHX 19:19	26%	7%	0.8%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	6h 05m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 13m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	48m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 03m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON