Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4532 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 08:00	PIT 09:25	7%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 4493 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 19:00	PIT 20:28	15%	5%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:25 → STL 07:30WN 3435	2h 35m St Louis	STL 10:05 → PIT 12:40WN 3971	6h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PIT 11:18DL 5754 · flown by Republic	5h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	2h 43m Boston	BOS 11:45 → PIT 13:41DL 5731 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 10:00 → PIT 12:30WN 1489	5h 55m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422	3h 25m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → PIT 11:45WN 1052	5h 35m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363	5h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	5h 52m	100%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:08 → PIT 23:52AA 4539 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	66%	56%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	2h 28m New York	LGA 21:20 → PIT 23:09DL 5722 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	70%	48%
American Details →	RDU 15:15 → PHL 16:50AA 5644 · flown by PSA	50m Philadelphia	PHL 17:40 → PIT 19:12AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	3h 57m	67%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON