Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 354 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 354 RDU 06:38 → SEA 09:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 572 RDU 17:34 → SEA 20:33 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 354 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:38	SEA 09:25	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
AS 670 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 07:02	SEA 09:56	16%	3%	1.0%	74%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 17:34	SEA 20:33	31%	9%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	7h 44m	96%	83%
United Details →	RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43UA 1535	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 23m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON