Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 573 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 573 RDU 06:35 → SFO 09:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 1769 RDU 17:27 → SFO 20:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 573 United Flight history →	RDU 06:35	SFO 09:17	16%	3%	0.7%	67%
UA 795 United Flight history →	RDU 09:50	SFO 12:32	19%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1769 United Flight history →	RDU 17:27	SFO 20:10	26%	9%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 10m	98%	83%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 52m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON