tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 580 Delta Flight history → RDU 07:10 SLC 09:42 9% 3% 1.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 7h 04m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:05 → SLC 11:45WN 4027 8h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698 6h 48m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 20m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:00 → SLC 11:20AA 2602 8h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 13m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 9h 20m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 14:46 → MSP 16:41DL 2521 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051 9h 27m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:47 → PHX 19:19AA 3033 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SLC 23:03AA 4921 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 74% 59%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:22 → PHL 19:01AA 2360 53m Philadelphia PHL 19:54 → SLC 23:08AA 2610 7h 46m 64% 49%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:30 → MIA 19:49AA 2406 53m Miami MIA 20:42 → SLC 23:37AA 1134 8h 07m 57% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON