tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3435 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3435 Southwest Flight history → RDU 06:25 STL 07:30 4% 1% 0.7% 93%
WN 3457 Southwest Flight history → RDU 19:55 STL 21:00 26% 7% 0.5% 33%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422 2h 20m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → STL 10:50WN 1110 5h 40m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 34m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 58m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 33m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 5h 28m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → EWR 07:40UA 1525 2h 13m Newark EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic 6h 41m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 57m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00AA 1903 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 07:37 → STL 08:33AA 2733 4h 32m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 5h 50m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766 55m Chicago MDW 21:35 → STL 22:55WN 2905 4h 10m 62% 47%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40WN 3428 50m Denver DEN 19:30 → STL 22:45WN 1756 6h 50m 59% 38%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor 5h 21m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON