Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 RDU 06:25 → TPA 08:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1275 RDU 18:07 → TPA 20:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	7%	3%	17.4%	94%
WN 4442 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:20	TPA 15:15	19%	6%	16.6%	82%
F9 2729 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 09:43	TPA 11:45	20%	7%	17.6%	90%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:07	TPA 20:03	26%	8%	17.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON