Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1460 RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1214 RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1460 Delta Flight history →	RIC 05:45	ATL 07:18	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1462 Delta Flight history →	RIC 10:19	ATL 11:58	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1402 Delta Flight history →	RIC 06:55	ATL 08:37	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1415 Delta Flight history →	RIC 08:00	ATL 09:42	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	RIC 13:03	ATL 14:52	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1437 Delta Flight history →	RIC 15:10	ATL 16:51	14%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	RIC 18:31	ATL 20:24	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	RIC 17:28	ATL 19:09	16%	4%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON