tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 705 at 11:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 705 Southwest Flight history → RIC 11:30 BNA 12:10 11% 3% 0.5% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → RIC 06:15 → BWI 07:10WN 3438 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 20m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155 5h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 29m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → RIC 07:25 → MDW 08:20WN 3252 3h 00m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 6h 20m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → BNA 09:49AA 5083 · flown by PSA 5h 47m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:20AA 4451 · flown by Republic 1h 07m New York LGA 08:27 → BNA 10:05AA 4364 · flown by Republic 5h 05m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BNA 12:02AA 5082 · flown by PSA 6h 32m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 07:30 → PHL 08:44AA 5830 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221 4h 21m 71% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON