Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5697 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5697 RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 782 RIC 18:20 → BOS 19:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5697 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 06:04	BOS 08:00	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
B6 1282 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 09:38	BOS 11:12	10%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 5622 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 11:36	BOS 13:28	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:59	BOS 21:00	19%	6%	1.0%	63%
B6 782 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 18:20	BOS 19:59	30%	12%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON