Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3438 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3438 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 06:15	BWI 07:10	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 3049 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 18:10	BWI 19:10	25%	4%	0.6%	16%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Boston	BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic	6h 49m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 02m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:36 → BOS 13:28DL 5622 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Boston	BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	RIC 07:25 → MDW 08:20WN 3252	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	7h 20m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 06m	97%	87%
American Details →	RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → BWI 09:26AA 1635	4h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	5h 47m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON