Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 549 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 549 RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5478 RIC 18:14 → CLT 19:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 549 American Flight history →	RIC 05:02	CLT 06:15	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2415 American Flight history →	RIC 09:07	CLT 10:35	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 1063 American Flight history →	RIC 06:30	CLT 07:54	12%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 5368 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 13:08	CLT 14:34	13%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 2412 American Flight history →	RIC 20:13	CLT 21:41	18%	4%	0.8%	63%
AA 5370 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 15:39	CLT 17:05	19%	6%	0.8%	54%
AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 18:14	CLT 19:39	24%	6%	1.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON