Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2493 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2493 RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1581 RIC 18:47 → DEN 20:43 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2493 United Flight history →	RIC 08:15	DEN 10:07	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 400 United Flight history →	RIC 16:12	DEN 18:05	20%	5%	0.6%	61%
WN 2557 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 17:10	DEN 18:55	28%	4%	0.6%	11%
F9 1581 Frontier Flight history →	RIC 18:47	DEN 20:43	29%	7%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON