Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2204 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2204 RIC 07:08 → DFW 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2416 RIC 19:28 → DFW 21:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2204 American Flight history →	RIC 07:08	DFW 09:27	12%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 2413 American Flight history →	RIC 15:19	DFW 17:38	20%	7%	0.8%	63%
AA 2416 American Flight history →	RIC 19:28	DFW 21:43	24%	7%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON