Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1145 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1145 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 08:10	FLL 10:34	18%	5%	1.5%	87%
B6 1245 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 12:17	FLL 14:38	30%	11%	1.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RIC 06:15 → BWI 07:10WN 3438	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785	6h 05m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 38m	99%	83%
American Details →	RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont	3h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 10:45 → FLL 13:38AA 695	7h 12m	100%	81%
United Details →	RIC 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 2464	1h 43m Houston	IAH 10:00 → FLL 13:47UA 2234	7h 32m	98%	81%
American Details →	RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 07:15 → FLL 09:16AA 1865	4h 14m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 32m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:25DL 5811 · flown by Republic	3h 30m New York	LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181	7h 54m	99%	78%
United Details →	RIC 06:50 → EWR 08:16UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	3h 21m Newark	EWR 11:37 → FLL 14:42UA 677	7h 52m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON