tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2464 at 06:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2464 United Flight history → RIC 06:15 IAH 08:17 10% 3% 0.7% 84%
UA 6231 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record RIC 16:52 IAH 19:10 19% 8% 0.3% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 02m Chicago ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 8h 23m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 07:42 → IAH 09:25AA 1930 5h 23m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → RIC 16:12 → DEN 18:05UA 400 3h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 9h 29m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 29m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → RIC 10:30 → ORD 11:59UA 3595 · flown by Republic 2h 16m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 7h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 38m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 39m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07UA 2493 3h 23m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 9h 49m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 5894 · flown by Piedmont 53m Philadelphia PHL 13:02 → IAH 15:47AA 1925 5h 53m 68% 56%
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 1h 01m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → IAH 22:49AA 3021 6h 15m 68% 53%
UnitedDetails → RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic 50m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 6h 13m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON