Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5811 RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5760 RIC 19:56 → LGA 21:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5811 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 06:00	LGA 07:25	7%	3%	1.1%	85%
AA 4451 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 06:00	LGA 07:20	8%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 4486 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 10:03	LGA 11:30	10%	5%	1.1%	83%
DL 5664 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 09:35	LGA 11:00	10%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 13:32	LGA 15:00	18%	7%	1.1%	61%
DL 5760 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 19:56	LGA 21:29	25%	12%	1.5%	71%
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	LGA 14:42	30%	12%	7.0%	70%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 17:59	LGA 19:27	52%	25%	15.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON