Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 769 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day B6 769 RIC 09:00 → MCO 11:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest B6 969 RIC 13:40 → MCO 15:47 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 769 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 09:00	MCO 11:08	16%	6%	13.0%	72%
WN 3579 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 16:10	MCO 18:15	26%	8%	15.6%	38%
B6 969 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 13:40	MCO 15:47	27%	11%	15.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON