Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3252 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3252 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 07:25	MDW 08:20	6%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 3441 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 19:45	MDW 20:40	23%	5%	0.6%	44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RIC 06:15 → BWI 07:10WN 3438	2h 25m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	5h 20m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 11m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 56m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 47m	94%	75%
Southwest Details →	RIC 18:10 → BWI 19:10WN 3049	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	4h 50m	94%	70%
Southwest Details →	RIC 17:10 → DEN 18:55WN 2557	1h 55m Denver	DEN 20:50 → MDW 00:15 +1WN 1615	8h 05m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	83%	61%
Delta Details →	RIC 12:32 → DTW 14:23DL 3166	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON