tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 604 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 604 American Flight history → RIC 06:25 MIA 08:52 15% 3% 1.4% 90%
AA 2939 American Flight history → RIC 18:25 MIA 20:55 39% 10% 2.3% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 12m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 35m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 05m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:37DL 1402 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 07m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 41m 98% 76%
SouthwestDetails → RIC 06:15 → BWI 07:10WN 3438 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278 4h 45m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:20AA 4451 · flown by Republic 2h 08m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 45m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 28m 89% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 1h 01m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → MIA 23:09AA 1181 5h 35m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON