tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5344 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 06:35 MSP 08:40 12% 6% 0.7% 88%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 14:15 MSP 16:19 38% 27% 0.0% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic 3h 50m Boston BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 8h 58m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:18DL 1460 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 6h 46m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → RIC 07:25 → MDW 08:20WN 3252 1h 55m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 5h 20m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → RIC 05:02 → CLT 06:15AA 549 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 08:25 → MSP 10:04AA 2154 6h 02m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 27m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 3h 00m Philadelphia PHL 10:40 → MSP 12:38AA 5658 · flown by PSA 7h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → RIC 10:50 → IAD 11:55UA 4485 · flown by GoJet 1h 25m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 5h 21m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → LGA 07:25DL 5811 · flown by Republic 3h 45m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 8h 10m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 20:01 → ORD 21:36AA 6285 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 5h 21m 75% 63%
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 55m Philadelphia PHL 19:49 → MSP 22:01AA 5460 · flown by PSA 5h 27m 62% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON