Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 224 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 224 RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 6285 RIC 20:01 → ORD 21:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 224 United Flight history →	RIC 06:00	ORD 07:23	10%	4%	1.0%	82%
UA 3595 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 10:30	ORD 11:59	11%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 4688 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 07:02	ORD 08:35	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 4500 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 12:00	ORD 13:28	15%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 3635 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 17:24	ORD 18:53	22%	5%	1.0%	69%
AA 6285 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RIC 20:01	ORD 21:36	25%	8%	1.7%	68%
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	ORD 14:26	13%	3%	3.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON