Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 09:05, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	RNO 22:52	ATL 06:16	18%	4%	0.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	85%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424	6h 39m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	8h 39m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 08:25 → ATL 15:25WN 4482	7h 05m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	7h 17m	100%	83%
United Details →	RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 08:45 → ATL 16:48UA 702	7h 48m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446	9h 39m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	8h 26m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	RNO 20:47 → LAS 22:12F9 4242	1h 38m Las Vegas	LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428	7h 12m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON