Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 12:50, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2104 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 16:15	AUS 21:35	30%	9%	0.5%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744	5h 45m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 08:40 → AUS 13:25WN 2830	6h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	99%	84%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	1h 18m Denver	DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026	5h 50m	98%	84%
American Details →	RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05WN 3890	55m Denver	DEN 10:00 → AUS 13:20WN 2263	5h 20m	95%	81%
United Details →	RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 08:50 → AUS 14:39UA 1326	6h 39m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	RNO 07:05 → BUR 08:25WN 3442	2h 35m Burbank	BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771	6h 55m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46AA 324	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 20m	74%	48%
Southwest Details →	RNO 12:50 → LAS 14:10WN 4676	50m Las Vegas	LAS 15:00 → AUS 19:50WN 2183	5h 00m	66%	44%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716	50m Denver	DEN 14:30 → AUS 17:40WN 1478	5h 10m	38%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON