tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3442 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3442 Southwest Flight history → RNO 07:05 BUR 08:25 6% 3% 0.6% 95%
WN 3443 Southwest Flight history → RNO 20:25 BUR 21:50 25% 13% 0.6% 12%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327 3h 40m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 06:20 → LAS 07:40WN 4750 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198 4h 35m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450 1h 30m Phoenix PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243 4h 40m 98% 89%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 08:00 → PDX 09:33AS 1643 1h 16m Portland PDX 10:49 → BUR 13:13AS 1384 5h 13m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 3h 57m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:00 → SFO 09:15UA 2317 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 3h 49m 68% 48%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 3h 39m 65% 47%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 18:20 → LAS 19:45WN 4136 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 20:45 → BUR 21:55WN 2163 3h 35m 71% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON