Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1283 at 09:20, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1283 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 09:20	DAL 14:30	13%	3%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 20m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	5h 25m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05WN 3890	1h 00m Denver	DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518	5h 10m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:45 → LGB 08:10WN 528	1h 20m Long Beach	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	5h 45m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	RNO 07:05 → BUR 08:25WN 3442	3h 20m Burbank	BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921	7h 45m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:20 → LAS 07:40WN 4750	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	7h 20m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:40 → SAN 07:10WN 4806	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 08:10 → DAL 13:15WN 4751	5h 35m	91%	77%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:15 → PHX 12:05WN 4805	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256	5h 35m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RNO 09:45 → MDW 15:30WN 3449	50m Chicago	MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758	6h 50m	69%	51%
Southwest Details →	RNO 11:15 → SAN 12:50WN 3454	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097	5h 50m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON