Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3890 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3890 RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2975 RNO 15:05 → DEN 18:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3890 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:00	DEN 09:05	5%	1%	0.5%	91%
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:47	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3716 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 10:30	DEN 13:40	9%	3%	0.5%	96%
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:21	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1225 United Flight history →	RNO 18:43	DEN 21:59	15%	7%	0.5%	75%
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:55	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 2975 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 15:05	DEN 18:25	23%	7%	0.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON