Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3445 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3445 RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4242 RNO 20:47 → LAS 22:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3445 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 05:20	LAS 06:40	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 4750 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:20	LAS 07:40	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 2272 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 09:30	LAS 10:55	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1276 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 08:40	LAS 10:10	8%	3%	0.6%	98%
WN 4133 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 10:40	LAS 12:05	11%	4%	0.7%	95%
WN 314 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:10	LAS 13:35	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
WN 4676 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:50	LAS 14:10	17%	6%	0.7%	78%
WN 2184 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 14:45	LAS 16:15	21%	11%	0.7%	72%
WN 5057 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 13:35	LAS 15:00	22%	8%	0.7%	72%
WN 3333 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 15:25	LAS 16:50	23%	11%	0.7%	62%
F9 4244 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 13:04	LAS 14:29	26%	11%	1.5%	47%
WN 4078 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 16:15	LAS 17:40	27%	12%	0.7%	75%
WN 2177 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 19:45	LAS 21:10	28%	11%	0.6%	64%
WN 4136 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 18:20	LAS 19:45	29%	13%	0.6%	67%
F9 4242 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 20:47	LAS 22:12	30%	12%	2.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON