Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2096 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14%.

Safest bet that day UA 2096 RNO 06:00 → LAX 07:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3512 RNO 12:40 → LAX 14:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2096 United Flight history →	RNO 06:00	LAX 07:38	7%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 5328 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:12	LAX 12:05	8%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	12%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 5908 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 18:35	LAX 20:30	14%	7%	0.6%	89%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 19:02	LAX 20:47	14%	7%	0.6%	84%
WN 3512 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:40	LAX 14:10	18%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON