Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 528 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 528 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:45	LGB 08:10	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 2876 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 17:40	LGB 19:10	23%	9%	0.7%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:55 → LGB 09:05WN 276	3h 45m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165	4h 55m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 29m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:20 → LAS 07:40WN 4750	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260	6h 25m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	RNO 14:45 → LAS 16:15WN 2184	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 20:00 → LGB 21:10WN 2031	6h 25m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	RNO 09:30 → LAS 10:55WN 2272	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:40WN 3061	6h 10m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	RNO 12:50 → LAS 14:10WN 4676	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 18:05 → LGB 19:15WN 1322	6h 25m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON