Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3449 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 09:45	MDW 15:30	13%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 05:20 → LAS 06:40WN 3445	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	6h 35m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05WN 3890	55m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	5h 25m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	RNO 19:30 → SJC 20:45WN 2496	2h 10m San Jose	SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886	7h 30m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	RNO 17:15 → SAN 18:55WN 4485	3h 45m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → MDW 04:40 +1WN 257	9h 25m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450	3h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:00 → MDW 15:15WN 4066	8h 15m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	RNO 19:45 → LAS 21:10WN 2177	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	7h 40m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:20 → LAS 07:40WN 4750	3h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	8h 30m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716	2h 10m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	6h 45m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON