Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2987 at 06:35, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2987 Delta Flight history →	RNO 06:35	MSP 11:49	9%	4%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 10m	99%	88%
United Details →	RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → MSP 14:24UA 283	6h 24m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	7h 50m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05WN 3890	1h 05m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MSP 13:10WN 3973	5h 10m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	6h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	8h 26m	100%	84%
United Details →	RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534	3h 59m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	8h 18m	98%	83%
United Details →	RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347	3h 21m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 41m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON