tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1288 United Flight history → RNO 07:00 ORD 13:00 13% 4% 0.7% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 18:35 → LAX 20:30UA 5908 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 9h 11m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 25m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:00 → LAX 07:38UA 2096 3h 07m Los Angeles LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 9h 04m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RNO 06:35 → MSP 11:49DL 2987 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 30m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 17:35 → PDX 19:09AS 2127 · flown by Horizon 3h 50m Portland PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376 9h 25m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 50m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → RNO 18:55 → SFO 20:13UA 2850 3h 17m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 9h 02m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 2h 45m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 7h 38m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 14:05 → SFO 15:30UA 4779 · flown by SkyWest 51m San Francisco SFO 16:21 → ORD 22:59UA 1482 6h 54m 69% 52%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 1h 05m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 7h 13m 69% 51%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:00 → SFO 09:15UA 2317 50m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → ORD 16:38UA 1954 6h 38m 59% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON