Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3121 RNO 12:07 → PDX 13:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1643 RNO 08:00 → PDX 09:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3121 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 12:07	PDX 13:46	10%	4%	0.6%	94%
AS 1643 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 08:00	PDX 09:33	14%	3%	0.7%	95%
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RNO 17:35	PDX 19:09	2%	0%	3.8%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON