Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3450 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3450 RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3452 RNO 19:00 → PHX 20:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3450 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 05:00	PHX 06:45	3%	2%	0.5%	96%
AA 1741 American Flight history →	RNO 06:01	PHX 07:44	8%	5%	0.6%	93%
WN 4805 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 10:15	PHX 12:05	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 1405 American Flight history →	RNO 09:52	PHX 11:35	13%	5%	0.6%	94%
AA 2418 American Flight history →	RNO 12:50	PHX 14:34	20%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 4053 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 19:07	PHX 21:01	20%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 16:21	PHX 18:14	23%	7%	0.9%	68%
WN 3452 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 19:00	PHX 20:55	28%	12%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON