Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4806 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4806 RNO 05:40 → SAN 07:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4485 RNO 17:15 → SAN 18:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4806 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 05:40	SAN 07:10	9%	1%	0.6%	90%
AS 3111 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 11:43	SAN 13:27	24%	10%	0.9%	67%
WN 3506 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 21:10	SAN 22:50	29%	11%	0.6%	58%
WN 3454 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 11:15	SAN 12:50	32%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 4485 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 17:15	SAN 18:55	40%	11%	0.6%	40%
AS 2234 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RNO 07:48	SAN 09:25	21%	0%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON