Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 323 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–45%.

Safest bet that day AS 323 RNO 06:03 → SEA 08:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 599 RNO 19:50 → SEA 21:57 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 323 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 06:03	SEA 08:02	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 3089 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 09:20	SEA 11:23	22%	6%	0.6%	69%
AS 601 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 14:46	SEA 16:43	36%	6%	0.8%	72%
AS 599 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 19:50	SEA 21:57	45%	9%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON