Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5627 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 5627 RNO 06:00 → SFO 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2317 RNO 08:00 → SFO 09:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 20% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5627 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 06:00	SFO 07:25	6%	5%	0.7%	93%
UA 2850 United Flight history →	RNO 18:55	SFO 20:13	25%	13%	0.6%	18%
UA 4779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 14:05	SFO 15:30	25%	16%	0.8%	58%
UA 5899 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 11:38	SFO 13:03	27%	16%	0.7%	57%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	RNO 08:00	SFO 09:15	37%	13%	0.6%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON