Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2496 at 19:30, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2496 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 19:30	SJC 20:45	23%	9%	0.6%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 06:20 → LAS 07:40WN 4750	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	5h 10m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	RNO 05:00 → PHX 06:45WN 3450	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:40WN 2978	4h 40m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	RNO 07:05 → BUR 08:25WN 3442	1h 30m Burbank	BUR 09:55 → SJC 11:05WN 835	4h 00m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 05m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	RNO 08:00 → PDX 09:33AS 1643	2h 12m Portland	PDX 11:45 → SJC 13:35AS 1632	5h 35m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 14:32 → SJC 15:46DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	6h 59m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RNO 14:45 → LAS 16:15WN 2184	55m Las Vegas	LAS 17:10 → SJC 18:40WN 5054	3h 55m	73%	52%
Alaska Details →	RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:45 → SJC 20:00AS 539	5h 14m	66%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON