Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5351 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5351 ROC 05:33 → DCA 06:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5375 ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5351 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 05:33	DCA 06:59	7%	5%	1.2%	93%
AA 5374 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 11:50	DCA 13:19	22%	10%	1.2%	58%
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 17:43	DCA 19:15	24%	12%	1.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON