Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1752 ROC 06:16 → DTW 07:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 4120 ROC 12:33 → DTW 13:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1752 Delta Flight history →	ROC 06:16	DTW 07:34	7%	3%	0.9%	90%
DL 4120 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ROC 12:33	DTW 13:55	13%	9%	0.7%	81%
DL 5240 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 09:55	DTW 11:18	12%	2%	1.0%	88%
DL 5231 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 17:48	DTW 19:15	35%	27%	5.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON