Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3626 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet that day UA 3626 ROC 06:00 → EWR 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 3580 ROC 16:15 → EWR 17:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3626 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:00	EWR 07:20	4%	2%	1.1%	94%
UA 3580 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 16:15	EWR 17:37	21%	6%	1.3%	74%
UA 4385 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 19:10	EWR 20:30	62%	38%	17.1%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON